Germany Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

Jul 16, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 101 pages
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Sugar production fell steeply in 2013/14 and the financial and legal setbacks suffered by major firms suggest that Germany's sugar industry will not enjoy a smooth transition into the post-quota age. Dairy producers are expected to fare better after the removal of supply quotas in 2015 as Europe's number one milk producer is already succeeding in capturing new export markets. Processed dairy products will also perform well over the forecast period and here too we see potential for further growth with deregulation. For meat production we see a more complex outlook with poultry output and consumption forecast to grow substantially, but weak growth expected for pork and beef. We expect strong wheat and corn harvests on the back of favourable weather, with barley falling back slightly in line with longer term trends.

Key Forecasts
  • Milk production growth to 2018: 5.8% to 31.9mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.
  • Pork consumption growth to 2018: down 1.2% to 4.4mn tonnes. Demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no let up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.
  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 14.4% to 25.6mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.
  • 2014 real GDP growth: 1.9%; up from 0.4% in 2013 and forecast to average 1.5% from 2014 until 2018.
  • Consumer price inflation: 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014, up from 1.6% in 2013.
  • BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value to shrink by 2.8% to USD34.4bn in 2014. Expected to grow by 1.2% to USD35.8bn from 2013 to 2018.
Industry Developments

A new law aimed at reducing levels of antibiotic use in animal husbandry came into force in April 2014. Livestock owners will now be...

The Germany Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Germany.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Germany Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.