Serbia Retail Report Q3 2014

Jul 4, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 68 pages
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The retail market in Serbia continues to struggle in the short term, although medium term growth reveals opportunity for later investment. The country comes second to last out of 11 countries in BMI ' s Central and Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, highlighting its weak performance relative to its peers. Although Serbia is not a member of the EU, its ongoing efforts to join and close trade ties with member nations help bring long-term growth prospects to the nation. BMI forecasts a decline in retail spending of 1.88% in 2014, with strong growth not beginning until 2017. The modest long-term growth prospects create opportunity for investment, however, currency fluctuations and political uncertainty and ongoing unemployment create risk

The short term growth prospects for Serbia remain very weak with BMI forecasting a decline in total retail spending of 1.88% in 2014 and 0.76% in 2015. Modest growth is forecasted to pick up in 2016 where BMI forecasts 1.84% growth and stronger growth rates of 6.6% and 7.0% are forecasted for 2017 and 2018. Despite this medium term growth, BMI forecasts that the total increase in GDP will be 24.3% and GDP will increase from USD43bn in 2014 to USD54bn in 2018, while retail spending will increase much less with BMI forecasting a total increase in retail spending of 15%.

The total spend in retail is forecasted to increase from USD31bn in 2014 to USD36bn in 2018, representing an average annual rate of increase of just 2.57%. The total spend per household is forecasted to increase from USD9,407 to USD10,493 representing a modest increase of just 11.53% throughout the projection period.

Although the retail market continues to struggle, there are some sectors where growth proves stronger. BMI forecasts that the strongest growth for the projection period will occur in the Recreation and Culture and Health sub-sectors which have forecasted average annual growth rates of 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively....

The Serbia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Serbia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits
  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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About the Publisher
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.