Poland Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
Jun 30, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 125 pages
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We see the most growth potential for Poland's livestock sector owing to increased export potential to the EU and Asia. The livestock industry in the country is relatively price-competitive compared with industry majors such as Brazil and the US, but it does not necessarily have the right export networks and infrastructure to rival these countries. We believe a law prohibiting kosher beef production, the horsemeat scandal and recent quality concerns in the beef industry will limit growth potential in t hat segment , but poultry and pork are likely to continue to perform strongly. For grains , we are turning more positive on corn production prospects in the long term , as the country is investing in area expansion for the crop. For sugar, we see growth potential limited by the recent U-turn in the EU 's biofuels policy , which restricts the amount of food crops to be used in the production of ethanol.

Key Forecasts
  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 5.8% to 4.2mn tonnes. This will come from recent investment in expansion in the crop on the back of high global prices and tight regional markets. Now that global prices have moderated, we expect production growth to be more limited; expansion will come mainly from yield improvements rather than increases in area planted.
  • Beef consumption growth to 2018: 9.6% to 187,800 tonnes. Over the past decade, beef consumption has declined rapidly in the wake of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and with consumers believing that poultry is a healthier choice. The widely publicised horsemeat scandal, as well as recent quality concerns, could affect consumption growth over the long term.
  • 2014 real GDP growth: 2.8% (up from an estimated 1.6% in 2013; predicted to average 3.1% over the period 2013-2018).
  • Consumer price inflation: 1.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average for 2014 (up from the 1.0% y-o-y estimated for...
The Poland Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Poland Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits
  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Poland.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Poland Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.


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