Mexico Metals Report Q3 2014

Jul 1, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 36 pages
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BMI Forecast: We expect expansion of the automotive, manufacturing, construction, and oil and gas sectors, all of which rely on steel and other refined metals as input s , will lead to steady production and consumption growth for Mexico's metal sector in 2014-2018. Domestic steel producers are likely to fac e pressure from both cheaper foreign imports and US duties on Mexican steel, though we do not believe either will significantly impact the sector.

We anticipate strengthening macroeconomic growth in Mexico over the next five years, driven by growth in automotive production, general manufacturing, and infrastructure, will drive production and consumption growth of Mexican metals, particularly steel. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2014, far stronger than growth of 1.1% in 2013. For 2015-2018 we forecast average annual growth of 3.8%.

Mexico's auto sector will continue to see investment and production growth given its exposure to the US, the world's largest autos market, and Latin America, which will see growing automotive consumption. Reforms to the country's energy sector lead us to forecast an uptick in oil and gas infrastructure investment and therefore increased consumption of steel used in pipelines and other equipment. We recognize the potential is large, and will thus monitor investment into the country's oil and gas industry, as well as a concurrent uptick in production and consumption trends, over the coming quarters.

We expect steelmaking to dominate Mexico's refined metal industry, with both domestic and foreign producers growing their presence in the country. We expect domestic producer Altos Hornos and Luxembourg-headquartered ArcelorMittal to remain two of the country's top producers. While Mexican steelmakers have invested in iron ore production, they remain less...

The Mexico Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Mexico.

BMI's Mexico Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Mexico.

Key Benefits
  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexico metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).


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About the Publisher
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.