We expect continued mine output growth in Brazil, particularly for iron ore, which we forecast will grow at an average annual pace of 4.3% to 2018. While we forecast iron ore prices will average lower year-on-year over the next five years, averaging USD90/tonne in 2018, Brazilian firm Vale will continue to take advantage of its low unit costs and seek to increase its global market share. The firm has cited unit costs in the USD30-50 per tonne range in the past, though reported Q114 costs as low as USD21/tonne. Shipping times and costs to China are longer and higher compared with Australian iron ore producers, though we do not forecast Brazilian competitiveness will suffer significantly.
Despite increasing iron ore production, we expect Brazil's total mining industry value to see only modest growth averaging 1.2% per annum to 2018. Our bearish iron ore price outlook underpins our modest growth forecast as iron ore makes up around 85% of the country's total mining export value. We believe Chinese economic growth will trend lower as steel-intensive fixed asset investment shifts to more domestic consumption, leading to lower demand growth from Vale and other iron ore producers, and further exacerbating the global glut of the steelmaking ingredient.
We maintain the country will see positive base and precious metals production growth despite a more muted external market. Bauxite and nickel production growth will continue, though...
The Brazil Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Brazil Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Brazil.Key Benefits
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.Key Projects
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
- Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
- Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Brazil's mining sector will experience slower average growth in 2014-2018 compared with previous years , primarily on account of slowing Chinese demand growth for metal ores. Nevertheless, mine production will still see growth as both domestic and foreign miners continue to exploit the country's significant reserves of both industrial and precious metals.