Mexico Retail Report Q3 2014

Jun 20, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 64 pages
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Mexico's retail sector represents a dynamic and growing market full of opportunities for investment. BMI forecasts that the overall economy will expand significantly over the forecast period with GDP increasing by 45% from US D 1 , 408bn in 2014 to US D 2 , 050 bn in 2018. This growth will drive retail growth with total household spending in retail forecast to increase 42.3% from US D 299bn in 2014 to US D 426bn in 2018. Unemploymen t is forecast to remain below 4.2% throughout the five year projection period, and the strong labo u r market means net household income will increase from US D 20,059 in 2014 to US D 27, 890 in 2018. In addition, the total percentage of households earning US D 10,000+ is forecast to i ncrease from 66.4% in 2014 to 79 .0% in 2018 , increasing population for consumers in this key income bracket and expanding the middle-class market. Together these forces create an average growth rate of 9.23% in the retail sector throughout the projection perio d and create a strong investment market.

Mexico's economy is strong and growing. Unemployment is forecast to decrease by 13.3% in 2014 bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.2%; this rate will continue to drop throughout the projection period and is forecast to hit 4.0% in 2018. The forecast GDP growth of 45% will have a positive impact on boosting the net income per household and per capita. BMI forecasts that net income per capita will increase from US D 7,783 in 2014 to US D 10,845 in 2018. This rise in consumer spending power boosts retail sales , an d BMI forecasts total household spending in retail will increase from US D 299bn in 2014 to US D 426bn in 2018, representing an average annual growth rate of 9.23%. In addition to the strong development in the private market, h igher public and social investment is outlined Mexico's 2014 budget, which is to be 8.8% higher than 2013 levels. The country has the second-largest population in Latin...

The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits
  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.


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About the Publisher
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.