While Germany remains relatively competitive compared with its eurozone peers, the economy has lost significant price competitiveness against non-eurozone industrial economies since mid-2012. The transition towards renewable resources will continue to exert a sizeable cost on energy-intensive German petrochemicals industries despite recent energy reforms. Attempts to shield industry from these costs will delay the process of economic rebalancing towards a more consumption-based growth model, although German industrial competitiveness will ultimately suffer from higher energy costs.
The German chemicals industry witnessed a strong performance in Q114 with output up 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) and sale improving 5.0% to EUR46.8bn. Although production declined slightly by 0.8% compared to Q413, domestic sales grew 3.0% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) while foreign sales declined 1.5%. German industrial customers led growth, but exports to Europe offset by declines in sales to the US and Asia leading to total foreign sales growth of 3.5% y-o-y.
The concern will be with the petrochemicals segment, which saw output down 1.5% in 2013 - although polymers grew 3.5%. In Q114, production of petrochemicals and derivatives declined 7.1% q-o-q and 2.8% y-o-y, although producer prices grew 0.8% q-o-q and -3.6% y-o-y. Of greater concern was the apparent reversal of the strong growth trend in polymers, which declined 5.0% q-o-q and 3.4% y-o-y. This is in line with BMI's expectation of an overall stagnation in petrochemicals and polymers, even as value added parts of the production chain will strengthen.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Positive trends within the eurozone - which represents 70% of...
The Germany Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Germany Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German petrochemicals industry.Key Benefits
CoverageBMI Industry View
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The weak and volatile external demand picture is compounded by a longer-term trend of eroding export competitiveness, which is starting to make itself felt in Germany's petrochemicals industry, according to BMI's latest Germany Petrochemicals Report.