Uzbekistan Oil & Gas Report Q3 2014

May 30, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 117 pages
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Gas projects - both upstream and downstream - have more momentum than oil developments as we forecast for total liquids production to be barely supported by a rise in condensate output. However, consumption growth in both oil and gas will be curtailed for the following reasons: diversion of gas to external markets to meet its export obligations and a failure to meet its local refined products demand domestically and restrictions on fuel imports.

The main trends and developments in Uzbekistan's oil and gas sector are:
  • We forecast a very gradual decline in oil reserves, with 485.0mn barrels (bbl) forecast to remain by 2023, down from the EIA's estimate of 594.0mn bbl for 2013. The outlook is slightly better for gas. Some discoveries and exploration activity would keep gas reserves stagnant at about 1.8trn cubic metres (tcm) through to 2018, though Uzbekistan would need to speed up the rate of exploration and discovery should it wish to prevent a fall in gas reserves to about 1.7tcm by 2023.
  • Uzbekistan has an estimated 340bn bbl of oil shale deposits and Uzbekneftegaz has established a USD600mn joint venture (JV) project that will convert the oil shale into crude oil to be processed into petroleum products. It has started first drilling at the Sangruntau deposit and aims to produce 2mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of liquids from oil shale (40,164 barrels per day, or b/d) between 2014 and 2015 and 8mn tpa (160,656b/d) by 2018 from the Sangrantau deposit alone. It has also started studying reserve potential at areas in the Kyzylkum desert and Baisun Mountains; however, we have not factored this in our forecast until the success of its first development is proven.
  • Without early success in enhanced recovery, shale-based production and/or new field development, we believe crude oil supply - including lease condensate but excluding natural gas liquids (NGL) - will decline to 63,270b/d by 2018. However, additional natural gas liquids (NGL) volume -...


The Uzbekistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Uzbekistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Uzbekistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Uzbekistani oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits
  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Uzbekistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Uzbekistani oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Uzbekistani oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uzbekistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.


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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.