In terms of defence expenditure, BMI believes that Egypt will spend up to USD5.4bn on defence in 2014. For the remainder of the forecast period; up to and including 2018, we expect Egypt to spend an average of USD7.4bn on defence annually, as the defence budget will experience significant increases. The final year of the forecast period will see Egypt spending up to USD8.9bn on defence.
Egypt is a net importer of military equipment and services. Although the country has developed some small-scale defence manufacturing capability it remains wholly dependent on imports for the supply of complex platforms and subsystems. Following Egypt's independence, the country imported significant quantities of materiel from the Soviet Union. This relationship was maintained until the late-1970s when a permanent peace was negotiated under the auspices of the United States between Israel and Egypt. The consequence of this agreement was that it enabled Egypt to secure imports of advanced US defence systems; a trend which has continued ever since.
BMI has given Egypt an overall security risk rating of 59 for Q314. The country scores an average overall security risk rating of 55 for the forecast period December 2007 until Q314. Egypt is considered to have a moderate risk of involvement in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, the country is considered to have a moderate risk of experiencing major terrorist action, while it has what we deem to be a serious risk of suffering from major criminal activities.
In late March 2014, Egypt's Chief of the General Staff and defence minister, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi resigned as...
The Egypt Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Egypt Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Egyptian defence and security industry.Key Benefits
CoverageGlobal and Regional Political Outlooks
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Egyptian defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.
BMI View: Egypt's strategic position is extremely tense following the ousting of President Mohamed Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood-led government during a coup d'etat supported by the country's armed forces in July 2013. However, the coup has caused the United States to place some military aid on hold for the time being as of the time of writing ( May 2014 ) .