We believe that Iran's contentious relations with the West will remain the dominant feature of its security and defence stance over the coming quarters, as has been the case consistently for the last couple of years. That said, we acknowledge that elements of Iran's security and defence position are somewhat in flux, as the administration of President Hassan Rouhani has begun to engage with the West on the issue of its controversial nuclear technology. Indeed, recent developments have been fairly positive, with tentative agreements for Iran to reduce its stockpile of uranium that is closest to weapons grade, while the West has eased some of the strict sanctions that had brought the country to its knees economically.
The progress made to date is noteworthy, but we believe that the parties are still a long way off from a permanent agreement on the nuclear question that will satisfy unease in the US and Israel about the prospect of Iran building a nuclear weapon. As such, and until such time as there is a verification regime in place, we believe there will remain elevated risks of military conflict between Iran and the West over the question of its nuclear programme. Even if military conflict is avoided with the West, we see Iran's Shi'a-dominated state remaining at odds with many of the predominantly Sunni states in the region. We...
The Iran Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iranian defence and security industry.Key Benefits
CoverageGlobal and Regional Political Outlooks
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iranian defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.
BMI View: We expect that Iran will increase its defence expenditure in 2014 by 7.1% in US dollar terms, bringing total spending to USD10.3bn or 2.2% of GDP. We acknowledge that the country's nuclear activities will remain a point of contention with the international community, but believe that ongoing talks between Iran and Western governments have the potential to de-escalate this issue. That said, should talks fail, and if Iran were thought to be approaching the point of successfully testing a nuclear weapon, we believe an Israeli or American strike on the country's nuclear facilities would become increasingly likely.