Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q3 2014
Kazakhstan has broadly maintained a defence trade balance in its favour since the commencement of the decade. We do not expect this situation to change in the coming years and, therefore, we expect Kazakhstan to continue exporting on average US$6.4mn more than it imports each year. Kazakhstan makes modest defence exports annually. Following the break-up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Kazakhstan inherited some significant components of the Soviet defence industrial complex. Not least of these is a significant aircraft manufacturing and export base, most notably focusing on the production of strategic freighters and also military rotorcraft. We expect that these platforms will continue to prove popular export items for Kazakhstan in the coming years. Kazakhstan is performing some small-scale imports of military equipment and services from third-party suppliers. The government is now also making some small-scale imports of equipment from Western suppliers, while commencing the manufacture of Western equipment via joint ventures established with Western suppliers.
We have given Kazakhstan an overall security rating of 74 for Q314. Kazakhstan has scored an average overall security risk rating of 77 for the period February 2009 up to Q314. We believe, as the discussion below will illustrate, that Kazakhstan retains a low risk of becoming involved in a major international conflict. Similarly, we note that the country has a low risk of suffering a major terrorist attack. That said, the same low level of risk cannot be noted as regards susceptibility to criminal activity which we calculate as being high.
BMI believes that Kazakhstan will spend up to US$2.8bn in 2014 on defence. Up to 2018, we expect the country to spend on average US$3.8bn on defence. We expect that the defence budget will rise to US$3.2bn in 2015, and then again to US$3.6bn by 2016. The final two years of the forecast period will see Kazakhstan spending US$4.0bn and US$4.4bn on defence in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
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