Bulgaria Defence & Security Report Q3 2014
Bulgaria maintains three separate armed services, namely its army, air force and navy. In common with many of the former Warsaw Pact members which have joined NATO in recent years, Bulgaria has performed a steady downsizing of its armed forces. In 2001, the country had 111,300 personnel in its armed forces. This steadily reduced to 47,300 in 2011.
Regarding Bulgaria's defence trade balance, the country has maintained a deficit as regards the value of its defence exports versus the value of its defence imports. Between 2012 and 2013, Bulgaria's defence trade balance had a deficit of USD100,000. We expect this figure to be maintained in 2014, and also throughout the remainder of the forecast period between 2015 and 2018, remaining unchanged at USD100,000.
BMI has given Bulgaria an overall security risk rating of 85 for Q314, with the country scoring an average overall security risk rating of 78 for the period January 2009 to Q314. Bulgaria enjoys a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. We also judge Bulgaria to be at a low risk of suffering a major terrorist attack, nevertheless, while the country's risk ratings for interstate conflict and terrorism are considered low, we judge Bulgaria to have a significantly higher risk of suffering major criminal activity.
BMI predicts that Bulgaria will spend USD618.4mn on defence in 2014. This is a reduction from the USD635.4mn that it spent in 2013. Although the years 2010-2013 showed a reduction in defence spending in Bulgaria, we expect spending to gradually increase up to 2018. We believe that Bulgaria will spend USD667mn annually on average between 2015 and 2018.
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