Uganda Defence & Security Report Q2 2014
Uganda has, at times, maintained a surplus as regards its defence trade balance between 2010 and 2013. The country commenced the decade with an arms and ammunition trade balance of USD8.9mn in its favour. In 2014, we expect the country to have a defence trade deficit of USD300,000, although this may reduce slightly for the remaining years of the forecast period (2015-2018) when we calculate that, on average, Uganda's defence trade balance will be USD200,000 per year.
Uganda has a moderate risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. It faces a similar risk as regards its likelihood of suffering a major terrorist attack, while the country has a comparatively higher risk of suffering from major criminal activity. Accordingly, we have given Uganda an overall security risk rating of 63 for Q214. On average, Uganda has scored an average security risk rating of 61 for the period December 2007 until Q214.
In February 2014, President Yoweri Museveni came under widespread international criticism for his decision to sign legislation that will bring in sweeping discriminatory powers against Uganda's homosexual and transgender communities. Some critics have alleged that the passage of the law is being used to distract Ugandans from the president's increasingly authoritarian rule as much as it is being used to discriminate against the country's gay community. The passage of the law has also triggered a witch hunt against gay Ugandans, with local newspapers publishing the personal details of individuals it suspects of being gay.
In 2014, we expect Uganda to spend up to USD408mn on defence. This is a significant increase on the USD405.3mn that the country spent on defence in 2013. We expect the defence budget to rise to USD475.5mn in 2015, and then increasing once again to USD546.3mn in 2016. By 2018, we expect Uganda to spend USD754mn on defence.
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