Slovakia Food & Drink Report Q2 2014
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2014 per capita food consumption growth = +3.05% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +3.73%
- 2014 alcoholic drinks sales growth = +2.53% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +5.06%
- 2014 soft drinks sales growth = +2.01% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +3.54%
- 2014 mass grocery retail growth = +3.14% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +4.89%
Key Company Trends
In June 2013, The Grocer reported that the UK-based Jamie Oliver food brand now has products available in 39 countries worldwide. The English chef has released a range of Italian pasta sauces and oils in 13 countries since Q112, taking the total number of countries where products are sold to 39. The latest additions are Slovakia, South Africa, Brazil, the Netherlands and Australia.
Risks To Outlook
The downside risks to our core view have subsided; however, they have not disappeared completely. The recovery in domestic demand remains fragile, and we also note that export growth - still the pillar of economic expansion - remains vulnerable to headwinds in the eurozone, especially Germany and the Czech Republic, the two most important export markets. A concentrated industrial base also creates a risk that sector shocks have a deep impact on the wider economy.
Though household consumption has recovered slightly over recent quarters, we remain fairly cautious in relation to Slovakia's near-term discretionary spending in the food and drink sector. We forecast unemployment to fall to 12.5% in 2014, the first time the rate has fallen below 14% since 2010. We expect the recovery in household spending to gain traction, and hold our forecast for private consumption growth in 2014 at 2.0%. This implies a significant 1 percentage point contribution to headline growth, which has relied solely on external demand since the economic crisis hit. We forecast this increase in private consumption to translate to a 3.1% increase in total food consumption through 2014.
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