Mexico Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2014
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: MXN187.4bn (USD14.7bn) in 2013 to MXN204.1bn (USD16.3bn) in 2014; +8.9% in local currency terms and +10.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast decreased from Q214 due to increasing generic competition.
- Healthcare: MXN1,044.3bn (USD81.8bn) in 2013 to MXN1,139.8bn (USD90.8bn) in 2014; +9.1% in local currency terms and +11.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q214 due to more optimistic macroeconomic forecasts.
Mexico scores 60.6 in BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Rating (RRR), making it the fourth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the region.
Key Trends And Developments
- Mexico's Federal Commission for Protection Against Health Risks (COFEPRIS) signed an agreement to promote innovation, under which the registration approval timeline for new molecules will be reduced to 60 working days from the previous 360 days.
- COFEPRIS changed its clinical research protocol to reduce the pre-approval time for clinical trials from three months to one month. COFEPRIS has also authorised the National Institutes of Health, as well as speciality hospitals, to assist its clinical trial evaluation process.
- Indian drugmaker Lupin revealed its acquisition of a 100% equity stake in Laboratorios Grin (Grin), a leading Mexican pharmaceutical company specialising in branded ophthalmic products.
- Genomma acquired a 50% interest in Marzam Commercial and Industrial Group for MXN600mn (USD45.15mn).
- GlaxoSmithKline Mexico's vice president and general manager, Jose Alberto Pena, told a local media organisation that the company has accelerated product registration in Mexico since November 2012. February
- Mexico's secretary of Health, Mercedes Juan Lopez, stated that the federal agency plans to reduce out-ofpocket spending on healthcare and improve the quality of service through Seguro Popular in Mexico. The Health secretary has also planned to reform Seguro Popular to address issues such as the fragmented healthcare system and inefficient use of resources in Mexico.
BMI Economic View: We forecast Mexican real GDP growth to accelerate from 1.5% in 2013 to 3.5% in 2014, amid an acceleration in household spending growth and an improvement in investment, bolstered by a successful reform drive in 2013. Exports will also pick up this year as US demand for manufacturing exports strengthens.
BMI Political View: The recent approval of an energy sector liberalisation bill in Mexico, while monumental for the economy's long-term growth prospects, will create an extremely challenging political environment for President Enrique Pena Nieto throughout the rest of his administration. Popular perceptions of energy sector reform remain highly divisive, and we expect social and political tensions to increase over the coming months.
Although Mexico has made great efforts to improve its regulatory framework and create a more hospitable business environment to entice pharmaceutical companies, it is still hard for multinationals to fully materialise their commercial benefit due to the significant market share of generic drugs. We believe that generic drugs will be a key element of Mexico's healthcare modernisation. They are a very effective way in which the government can control public spending while trying to increase medicines coverage. However, in the long term, Mexico's improving private health insurance sector and potentially significant investment from the government will boost patented drug consumption in the country.
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