Mexico Autos Report Q2 2014
Light vehicle sales in Mexico increased 7.7% y-o-y over the year, to 1,063,363 units. We had forecast passenger car sales to increase 6.6% and LCV sales to increase 8.0% in 2013. Despite a slight moderation in sales growth, BMI maintains a bullish view on the Mexican consumer story, as retail sales have remained resilient in recent months and broader measures of consumer sentiment are positive.
In 2014, BMI expects these dynamics to continue. We forecast passenger car sales to increase 5.4%, a slight moderation from 2013 levels, due to high base effects from 2013, and we expect to see a 9.4% increase in LCV sales as the positive broader macro picture continues to drive sales.
Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined 3.6% in 2013, to 16,098 units, following a 30.5% y-o-y increase in December. This was in line with BMI's expectation of a 'resurgence in the segment in the final months' of the year, on the back of low base effects and improving manufacturing and construction figures following a period of weakness earlier in the year. We had expected to see a 5% contraction in heavy truck sales in 2013.
Light vehicle production in Mexico declined 9.1% y-o-y in December, to 164,221 units. Over the full year, however, output in this segment increased 1.7% y-o-y, to 2,769,244 units. We had expected to see an uptick in output in the final months of 2013 on the back of increasing production for export volumes. This has not played out, although we did see a modest increase in exports over this period - this was met by utilising existing stockpiles and not new output, however. This informed our forecast for 3.0% growth in the passenger car segment and 1.0% growth in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment in 2013.
In 2014, we forecast 5.8% growth in passenger car production and a 5.3% increase in LCV output as exports look set to increase over the year and the domestic market remains fairly strong.