Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q2 2014
By 2018, BMI predicts that Kazakhstan will spend a combined total of US$4.4bn annually on defence. We expect the defence spending of Kazakhstan to reach US$2.6bn during 2014. From this year onwards, annual defence spending is expected to continue its upward trend. In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Kazakhstan has moderately increased the share of GDP which defence spending occupies. BMI expects that this country will spend on average 1.2% of its gross GDP on defence by 2018.
Of all of Kazakhstan's armed services, by far its largest is its army which has averaged 39,800 personnel in size during the last decade. Kazakhstan's second-largest armed service is its paramilitary force, which has comprised on average 33,370 for the last decade. Kazakhstan's air force has comprised on average 16,400 personnel over the last decade while the country's smallest armed service, its navy, has averaged 2,990 personnel between 2007 and 2010.
BMI has given Kazakhstan an overall security risk rating of 74 for Q214. On average, Kazakhstan has scored an average overall security risk rating of 77 for the period February 2009 until Q214. As the report will illustrate, Kazakhstan is considered to be at little risk from involvement in interstate conflict. Moreover, it is also considered to be at relatively low risk from terrorist attack. However, we do consider that the country is at risk from criminal activity.