We identified Mexico as 'the most promising emerging pharmaceutical market' in September 2013, Shortly after this, the approval of the energy reform bill reinforced our view that, over the long term, healthier fiscal revenue will encourage the government to further increase public healthcare spending and improve national medical service standards. Multinational pharmaceutical companies will have more opportunities to fully capitalise on Mexico's strong pharmaceuticals and healthcare market growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: MXN192.41bn (US$14.97bn) in 2013 to MXN210.40bn (US$16.63bn) in 2014; +9.3% in local currency terms and +11.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q114 due to a positive macroeconomic outlook.
- Healthcare: MXN1,030.95bn (US$80.23bn) in 2013 to MXN1,120.06n (US$88.54bn) in 2014; +8.6% in local currency terms and +10.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q114 due to changes to macroeconomic forecasts.
Risk/Reward Rating: Mexico scores 60.6 in BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Rating (RRR), making it the fourth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Americas. We have reweighted the RRR components to improve the tool, and adjusted scores for all markets in the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports.
Key Trends And Developments
- In January 2014, Mexico's Federal Commission for Protection Against Health Risks (COFEPRIS) and the Confederation of Customs Brokers Associations of Mexico (CAAAREM) renewed the cooperation agreement to accelerate health sector control in foreign trade for 2014.
- In December 2013, COFEPRIS reported that it approved a total of 101 new molecules in the period between 2012 and 2013.
- In December 2013, Mexico's National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition became the first hospital in Latin America to secure a certificate from the Association for the Accreditation Program of Human Research Protection (AAHRPP).
- In December 2013, the Supreme Court of Justice (Suprema Corte de Justicia de la Nacion, SCJN), the highest court of Mexico, made the final decision on a dispute between Roche and the Mexican generic drugmaker Probiomed. COFEPRIS must make the final judgement on the Roche - Probiomed case to ensure that Probiomed's version meets all the legal requirements in terms of safety, quality and efficacy. This means that COFEPRIS must decide whether clinical studies are needed, which is the main point of conflict between Roche and Probiomed.
- In November 2013, Bayer planned to open a new office in the capital of Mexico, Mexico City.
- In November 2013, Wal-Mart de Mexico y Centroamerica signed an agreement with the Mexican Association of Interchangeable Generics Manufacturers (AMEGI) to secure the institution's support in generic drug issues.
BMI Economic View: We maintain our real GDP growth forecast of 2.3% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014 for Mexico, compared to 3.8% in 2012. Real private consumption has held up relatively well despite the weakening of the overall economy in H113, and we expect household spending to pick up over the coming months. In addition, we believe President Enrique Pena Nieto's reforms will attract significant investment over the coming years.
BMI Political View: Despite rising political challenges from the opposition, we believe Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto will have enough political capital to pass key energy and fiscal reforms this year. However, intense political negotiation could lead to watered down reforms, and we therefore continue to believe that secondary legislation, which would be discussed next year, will be key in determining the success of energy sector liberalisation.