In BMI's Turkey tourism report, we examine a range of key market indicators in this well established and popular market, including inbound and outbound travel, industry value and tourism related expenditure. We expect to see increases across the board; however, any escalation in regional and domestic tensions is likely to impact on growth.
Indeed, domestic tensions remain a risk to the tourism industry, with the recent outbreak of widespread protests against Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan marking a turning point in his decade-long stint in power. Though this is unlikely to lead to a change in government before election in 2015, the riots and protests could deter investors and travellers alike.
BMI expects to see inbound arrivals increase in 2013 by 3.5% to reach 32.9mn, further increasing to 37.7mn by 2017. This growth is largely dependent on real GDP growth in eurozone countries, a key source of tourism for Turkey. In the longer term, we expect Turkey to continue rebalancing its interests away from the West in favour of closer ties with the former Soviet Union and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This will have a marked effect on the nationality of inbound tourists, as an increasing divide between Turkey and the EU might well result in fewer European tourists and more from the MENA region. The top 10 markets for travel to Turkey is quite diversified, however, and is likely to be able to balance out declines in any particular area.
As well as growth in inbound travel, we are also forecasting strong growth in outbound travel from Turkey throughout the forecast period, as solid GDP growth in the country boosts private financial consumption - a key indicator of outbound travel. Growth of around 7% to 8% per year is expected to lead to an annual departures figure of 8.2mn by 2017.
The opportunities presented by the Turkish market are reflected by our forecast for an increase in the number of hotels and other accommodation establishments in the country, which we expect will grow to 6,420, equating to some 16,000 extra rooms. The country is currently perceived as offering extremely attractive investment opportunities for hotel groups and other tourist-related industries, largely owing to expanding domestic tourism and regional tourism, supported by an increase in higher disposable incomes.
So long as the country can steer clear of regional and internal tensions, the future is looking very positive for tourism in Turkey.
- In 2013, Wyndham Hotel Group opened its TRYP by Wyndham hotel brand in Taksim, as well as the 306-room Wyndham Istanbul Petek. Carlson Rezidor is also in the midst of a significant expansion programme in Turkey, with Intercontinental Hotels Group also planning expansions.
- Receipts from tourism are expected to increase throughout the forecast period, to reach a substantial US $35.1bn in 2017.
- Outbound travel is expected to increase by between 4% and 8% through to 2017 to reach 8.2mn, while inbound travel will be much more substantial, reaching 37.7mn in 2017.
- Turkey's recent unrest has resulted in a decrease in its Risk/Reward Rating for the tourism sector, placing it 24th out of 25 countries with a tourism market rating of 42.51.