Indonesia's consumer electronics market has strong growth prospects on the basis of low current ownership and falling prices that make devices more affordable. Increasing 3G and mobile data access is driving demand for smartphones and, to a lesser extent, tablets. Economic growth and strong demand for bigger ticket items such as flat-panel TV sets will drive total market value, although computers account for a strong share. Consumers in Indonesia will see internet access and content consumption in a different way to developed market consumers, meaning the most successful companies will be those that understand consumer spending and demand for different electronics products. Overall market growth will see the market reach US$22.5bn by the end of 2017, representing a compound annual growth rate of 8.1%.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer Hardware Sales: US$4.5bn in 2013 to US$6.4bn in 2017 as both consumers and businesses become more accustomed to online services. Tablets will cut into demand for notebooks and PCs will lose prominence in overall market sales.
- AV Sales: rising from US$5bn in 2013 to US$7.6bn in 2017 as the flat-screen TV set market continues to grow strongly year-on-year (y-o-y).
- Handset Sales: Strongest area of the market, increasing from US$5.8bn in 2013 to US$8.5bn in 2017. Smartphones will drive market value growth, although sales of more basic devices will remain strong. The launch of several low-cost smartphones has the potential to change the market landscape quickly and see smartphones dominate the market.
- Risk/Reward Ratings: Indonesia retained its score of 49 out of 100.0. Indonesia ranks 8th in the Asia region in our latest RRR table, ahead of regional peers such as the India and Thailand. Indonesia's vast size and currently low penetration across a range of consumer electronics product categories should see the country rise in the rankings over time.
Key Trends & Developments
- Our report this quarter focuses on companies operating in the Indonesian Consumer Electronics market, including local players such as Global Teleshop and Performance Multipolar Technology. These are accompanied by Lenovo, which targeted Indonesia in 2012 by opening a local office to focus on the market. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also believed to be ready to open a factory in the country to take advantage of the market's strong potential.
- Rising PC penetration points to exceptional growth potential, with the main drivers being growing affordability and more credit availability. However, new Ministry of Commerce regulations on imports of notebooks, tablets, smartphones and other devices will lengthen time to market. In the case of smartphones, they at least led to a sales slowdown early in 2013.
- TV set penetration is estimated at around 75% in Indonesia, leaving room for continued growth. A booming market in the past few years has spurred the development of a local TV set manufacturing industry and led to a fall in imports even as the market soared.
The Indonesian market has also seen a surge in popularity of smartphones, but the grey sector remains a significant feature of the market, with cheap knock-off models, many from China, ubiquitous in the market. Despite rising sales of smartphones, lower-priced feature phones remain the market mainstay. Usage is changing, however, and driving demand for high-end devices that offer social media, internet access and access to content. This will encourage low-cost smartphone manufacturers to consider markets like Indonesia early in their shipment plans.