Medicines demand in Nigeria will be driven by urbanisation, rising per capita incomes, a growing burden on non-communicable diseases and the government's plans to increase widespread healthcare access to all citizens. However, we note that government spending is significantly dependent on oil and gas revenues and, as such, any fall in prices of these commodities is likely to cause a decline in government investment in healthcare. Key downside risks to foreign multinational investment include low pharmaceutical per capita spending, weak patent respect and poor business transparency. Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: NGN174.5bn (US$1.10bn) in 2012 to NGN203.8bn (US$1.28bn) in 2013; +16.8% in local currency terms and +16.5% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised slightly downwards due to modifications to historical figures.
- Healthcare: NGN2,356.4bn (US$14.8bn) in 2012 to NGN2,720.9bn (US$17.1bn) in 2013; +15.5% in local currency terms and +15.2% in US dollar terms. Forecasts broadly in line with Q413.
In Q114, Nigeria maintained its Q413 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score of 38 out of 100, although it jumped three places from 21st position to 18th position in the Middle East and Africa matrix. Nigeria is regarded as a low-reward, high-risk proposition for multinationals due to drug counterfeiting, corruption and poor pharmaceutical regulations governing the market.
Key Trends And Developments
The Nigerian Federal Government announced that as of June 30 2014, the sale of pharmaceutical drugs outside regulated sales channels will be banned. Manufacturers and importers will be required to channel their medicines to State and Mega Drug Distribution Centres (SMDDCs) - introduced by the National Agency For Food, Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) - as a provision of the new National Drug Distribution Guidelines. The current uncoordinated drug distribution system is largely responsible for the circulation of counterfeit medicines in the pharmaceutical sector.
GlaxoSmithKline Nigeria registered an 8.3% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profit to NGN2.09bn (US $13mn) in H113, ended June 30 2013, in comparison with NGN1.93bn (US$12.03mn) in H112. The company's turnover rose to NGN13.99bn (US$87.1mn) in the reported period, compared with NGN12.84bn (US$79.9mn) in H112. In addition, GSK also withdrew its plan to increase its share in the Nigerian unit to 75% after opposition from minority stakeholders.
Director of NAFDAC, Paul Orhii, reported that Nigeria produces less than 30% of essential medicines consumed in the country due to local pharmaceutical companies' poor production capacities. Orhii cited the country's low drug manufacturing potential as one of the reasons for the increasing threat of fake and substandard drugs in the country.
BMI Economic View: The Nigerian economy still faces major headwinds in the crucial oil and gas sector, but other sectors, notably agriculture, have started to pick back up. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.7% in 2013, a rate below Nigeria's substantial potential but a slight improvement on the previous year.
BMI Political View: President Goodluck Jonathan's decision to dismiss nine cabinet ministers linked to a breakaway faction of the ruling party suggests that the embattled leader has no intention of negotiating with the rebels. We expect political tensions to increase, and believe that the split could pose a risk to Jonathan's re-election in 2015