Mexico's encouraging macroeconomic growth prospects, business-friendly environment and improving pharmaceutical regulatory regime have made it an increasingly attractive market to multinationals. Apart from the ageing population and the increasing incidence of chronic diseases, the government's commitment to improve its healthcare services is another fundamental factor driving market growth. In addition, its unparalleled policies in market accessibility have made Mexico an important hub for multinationals to enter other Latin American countries.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: MXN176.00bn (US$13.38bn) in 2012 to MXN191.71bn (US$15.10bn) in 2013; +8.9% in local currency terms and +12.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q413 due to positive industry developments.
- Healthcare: MXN961.30bn (US$73.09bn) in 2012 to MXN1,046.29bn (US$82.39bn) in 2013; +8.8% in local currency terms and +12.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q413 due to changes in macroeconomic forecasts.
Risk/Reward Rating: Mexico scores 60.6 in BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Rating (RRR), making it the fifth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in America. We have reweighted the RRR components this quarter to improve the tool and adjusted scores for all markets in our Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports.
Key Trends And Developments
- In September 2013, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto unveiled the fiscal reform proposal to bolster government revenue. We highlight the exemption of medicines to VAT and the creation of universal social security will further improve the long-term outlook of the country's pharmaceutical market..
- In August 2013, UN Comtrade reported that medicine imports in Mexico reached US$4.6bn in 2012.
- In August 2013, Cofepris started a consultancy service to discourage self-medication and unfair competition, according to the commissioner of Cofepris, Mikel Arriola. As part of the programme, Cofepris will open 10,000 clinics at pharmacies in the country, which will provide about 250,000 daily consultations to people who are not able to attend other medical care centres..
- In July 2013, Mexican pharmaceutical company Genomma Lab reported that sales increased 22.1% year-on-year to MXN2.53bn (US$200.39mn) in Q213 (ended June 2013).
- In July 2013, Novo Nordisk announced that its new basal insulin (degludec) designed for the treatment of Type I and Type II diabetes is commercially available in Mexico
BMI Economic View: In our previous update we adjusted down our real GDP growth forecast for 2013, from 3.6% to a below-consensus 3.0%, and the release of Q113 GDP by expenditure confirms this more pessimistic outlook. Moreover, we highlight that the risks to our view lie weighted firmly to the downside, with potential for an uptick in imported inflation to hamper private consumption and indications that an uncertain global economic environment may weigh on investment to a greater extent than we are currently envisioning..
BMI Political View: While the election authority has ordered a recount, preliminary results suggest that the centre-right Partido Accion Nacional has won the gubernatorial race in Baja California. If these results hold, it will help maintain the tripartite Pact for Mexico and keep President Enrique Pena Nieto's reform agenda on course. On a less positive note, we believe the heightened local violence seen during the election is only likely to continue as Mexico's drug cartels continue to fracture..