Domestically, the Egyptian military is now focused on the threat of jihadi terrorists in the Sinai and continued protests by the Muslim Brotherhood against the July coup. Internal strife shows no immediate signs of abating, and a harsh crackdown by the Egyptian authorities against the Muslim Brotherhood has conspired to create a tense atmosphere.
A court decision to accept the appeal to retry Mubarak could have far-reaching consequences; however, in the near term there were celebrations in the streets as many applauded the decision to impose more stringent punishments on the former president and his cohorts. Morsi is under arrest and is expected to face trial, something which could deepen internal tensions in Egypt still further.
Regionally, the July 2013 coup d'etat was greeted with a muted reaction and applauded in some quarters, with only a small number of Middle Eastern countries expressing disquiet. Further afield, several international organisations, and several countries have called for a swift return to democracy appealing for calm and for an end to violence.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Provided an update regarding the possible effects of the July 2013 coup on the supply of materiel to the armed forces by the United States, Egypt's most important international ally.
- An analysis of the likely security challenges facing the government and Egypt's armed forces in the wake of the coup.