Although Sanofi's 'disappointing quarter' as well as currency devaluation in Brazil created certain market unease, the sales performance of multinationals has remained positive. The increasing demand for advanced medicines in the country continues to drive innovative drugmakers' revenue growth. However, key factors to multinationals' success, such as intimate relationship with Brazilian authorities and deeper integration with local drugmakers, may become their undoing in long-term. Multinationals will face more fierce generic competition and increasing intervention from local authorities.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: BRL52.4bn (US$26.8bn) in 2012 to BRL57.0bn (US$26.6bn) in 2013; +8.7% in local currency terms and -1.0% in US dollars terms. Forecast downwards from Q313 due to macroeconomic forecast changes.
- Healthcare: BRL410.8bn (US$210.2bn) in 2012 to BRL443.5bn (US$206.7bn) in 2013; +8.0% in local currency terms and -1.6% in US dollars. Forecast downwards from Q313 due to less optimistic macroeconomic forecast data.
Brazil scores 61.5 in BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Rating (RRR), making it the fourth most attractive pharmaceutical market in America. We have re-weighted the RRR components to improve the tool, and adjusted scores for all markets in the Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare reports..
Key Trends And Developments
- In Q213, Sanofi reported a 'frustrating quarter', largely due to Brazil's generic drug issues. In Brazil, sales were EUR154mn (US$203mn), affected by underperformance and an adjustment of EUR122mn (US $161mn). Given the impact of Brazil and the year-to-date performance, Sanofi has reduced its 2013 business EPS (earning per share) expectations by 7-10% compared with 2012.
- In Q213, Hypermarcas reported revenues of BRL1,069mn (US$470.7mn), a 12% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. The 13.3% growth in the pharma division and of 9.8% in the consumer division contributed to this result. The company's gross profit in Q213 climbed to BRL703.9mn (US$310.0mn), 19% higher than in Q212.
- In June 2013, Health Minister Alexandre Padilha announced that the government will allocate more resources to public healthcare after two weeks of protests in Brazil calling for better public services.
- In June 2013, Fiocruz signed a supply and technology transfer agreement with Protalix BioTherapeutics and Pfizer to purchase a minimum of US$280mn worth of Uplyso (taliglucerase alfa) for the treatment of Gaucher's disease.
- In June 2013, the government planned to fund 160 pharmacies to enrol in the Unified Health System (SUS).
- In June 2013, Alexandre Padilha, announced 27 new domestic production development partnerships in a meeting with GECIS - Grupo do Complexo Industrial da Sa de, the ANVISA and Fiocruz.
BMI Economic View: Disappointing economic data in recent months, alongside our view that high inflation and interest rate hikes will increasingly weigh on Brazil's household sector in recent months, underpin our decision to revise down our 2013 real GDP growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.6%. In addition, we expect that these factors will continue to weigh on economic activity in 2014, despite tailwinds from the end of the PAC II growth acceleration programme, the FIFA World Cup, and a general election, such that we are revising down our growth forecast for next year to 3.0% from 3.6% previously.
BMI Political View: The extent to which an isolated incident of student protests has spread into nationwide demonstrations has brought several structural weaknesses in Brazil to the fore, indicating that issues such as corruption, transparency of government institutions, high public spending, and rising living costs, will dominate the political landscape ahead of the 2014 presidential election.