Passenger car sales in Brazil increased 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first three months of 2013, to 613,220 units. Despite this weak growth, we maintain our forecast for 5.4% growth in 2013, however, as the government's recently extended tax breaks filter through to sales, and private consumption picks up somewhat over the year. We caution that there are some downside risks to this forecast as these dynamics may have a more limited effect on sales volumes than we currently envisage.

Vehicle production in Brazil increased 12.1% y-o-y in Q113, to 827,727 units. Light vehicle production rose 10.5% y-o-y, to 774,236 units, and heavy truck production increased 39.1% y-o-y, to 43,558 units. After a moderate downturn in 2012, BMI has long maintained that 2013 will witness a resurgence in Brazilian autos production as government policy bears fruit, and domestic sales and exports rise. This view is playing out, and we expect to see continuing increases in the market, although we expect the growth rate to moderate somewhat over the year.

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