BMI expects the Poland consumer electronics market will grow by around 4% in 2013, with faster growth likely as the eurozone economy picks up in the second half of the year.
Household income growth is likely to remain subdued into mid-2013, however. Household balance sheets will also dampen private spending into H113. The effects of strong credit growth in 2006-8 are still being felt on households, as was suggested by a steep decline in retail sales in Q412. Household spending on digital lifestyle items will remain under pressure in 2013 from low real wages growth and sticky unemployment.
Over the five-year forecast period, BMI forecasts a steady increase in spending on consumer electronics products such as smartphones and LED TV sets, driven by rising disposable incomes, consumers seeking choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer hardware sales: US$3.5bn in 2012 to US$3.7bn in 2013, +4% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, but Poland remains on course to close the PC ownership gap with Western Europe.
- Handset sales: US$2.0bn in 2012 to US$2.1bn in 2013, +9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with strong growth expected in smartphone sales.
- AV sales: US$2.4bn in 2012 to US$2.6bn in 2013, +8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with growth areas including HD TV, 3D and smart TV.
Risk/Reward Rating: Poland's score was 54.7 out of 100.0 with a high Market Risk and Country Risk scores of 70 and 73.3 respectively. Poland took first place in our latest Emerging Europe CE RRR table, and looks set to be one of the best regional CE market prospects over our five-year forecast period.
Key Trends & Developments
By 2017, BMI forecasts that non-LCD and plasma models will comprise only about 10% of TV sales, although there currently remains demand for larger analogue models. TV revenue accounts for more than 50% of total AV demand, although lower average prices of flat screen TV sets will restrain revenue growth. Expanding availability of digital and HD TV broadcasting will drive demand for a higher quality viewing experience as consumers upgrade their sets to digital.
Growing competition and operator promotions will drive smartphones sales and in 2012 smartphones represented a majority of handset models offered by Poland's telecoms operators. In the case of mobile service provider Play, smartphones accounted for 80% of handsets on offer, while the equivalent figure for Orange Poland was 70%. Bundling attractive hardware such as smartphones and netbooks is one method being pursued by the operators in their attempts to woo higher value customers.
BMI projects that PC penetration could reach about 75% by 2017. In the medium term, a quick look at Poland's forecast growth trajectory reveals how quickly Poland could close the PC ownership gap with Western Europe as incomes increase, driven by the effects of EU membership.