BMI View: Polish IT spending is expected to reach PLN29.3bn in 2013, up 4.8%. Growth of IT spending will be squeezed by a dip in macroeconomic performance in 2013, with real GDP growth forecast to slow to 1.9%. However an improved outlook from 2014 to 2017, with real GDP growth averaging 3.8% annually, will see the market growth accelerate. Poland is expected to maintain its status as one of Central and Eastern Europe's fastest-growing IT markets over the 2013-2017 forecast period, thanks to EU funding for ICT and information society-related initiatives, as well as a buoyant outsourcing and cloud computing market and rising real incomes in the later part of our forecast period.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer hardware sales: PLN12.0bn in 2013 to PLN14.2bn in 2017, CAGR of 3.4% in local currency terms. Household PC penetration is forecast to continue converging with Western Europe with opportunities for vendors in mid-range devices and new form factors.
- Software sales: PLN5.6bn in 2013 to PLN7.8bn in 2017, CAGR of 9.8% in local currency terms. Launch of Windows 8 in October 2012 and withdrawal of support for XP from 2014 will catalyse upgrades while there is still scope for growth in business software market.
- IT services sales: PLN11.7bn in 2013 to PLN16.4bn in 2017, CAGR of 8.3% in local currency terms. Key growth opportunities in outsourcing and cloud computing from IT-spending verticals such as financial services, telecoms, the public sector and utilities.
- Risk/Reward Ratings: Poland's score was 57.2 out of 100.0. Poland moved up to seventh place in our latest RRR table, behind Russia, but ahead of CEE peers Hungary and Turkey..
Key Trends And Developments
The launch of Windows 8 in October 2012 marks the beginning of a period of evolution in the retail hardware market by opening up touch functionality to a wider range of vendors. Whereas in wealthier markets low functionality tablets have seen rapid sales growth, in Poland vendors have yet to find attractive mix of mobility and functionality at appropriate price points to disrupt the growth of conventional notebooks. However with vendors able to produce tablets on Windows 8 or Android, as well as laptop hybrids using Windows 8 we expect to see innovation in the coming years that will see a blurring of device categories.
Meanwhile the enterprise and government markets are expected to see growth, albeit slowed by the weaker macroeconomic outlook in 2013. Retrenchment is likely in non-EU-funded public sector IT spending, as a result of fiscal constraints, but EU funds remain significant. Furthermore, there is a large growth opportunity for cloud computing and outsourcing services as enterprises and government look at cost cutting measures and increasing flexibility via their IT investments.