BMI View: The Indonesia Tourism industry offers a number of opportunities for long term growth through expansion of both the domestic and international tourism markets. International arrivals are expected to grow by 3.5% in 2013, rising to 5% growth per year by 2017. Even higher growth is forecast for the outbound tourism market, and we expect to see growth of around 9% per year, reflecting the strength of the Indonesian domestic economy.
This quarter BMI has revised and restructured its tourism reports, incorporating a greater range of data and focusing on the hotel industry, the value of the tourism industry itself, and the impact of macroeconomic factors.
We believe the growth in outbound tourism is based upon the strength of the domestic economy which is expected to show steady growth from 2013 onwards, of between 5.6% and 6.5% a year. This will boost the domestic tourism market, resulting in increased expenditure on travel and transport items. At the same time the government is making substantial investments in the country's travel infrastructure, which is in need of large scale expansion, focusing in particular on improving airports and airline safety. There are 4 international airports in Indonesia, complemented by a range of smaller local airports providing domestic connections, however the industry is limited by ongoing safety concerns. The government announced US $43bn of infrastructure investment in April 2012, improving air, rail and road transport, which should boost the long term growth of the tourism industry. Foreign investments are also expanding, with a range of hotel groups extending their presence in the country.
The global economic crisis may impact on international arrivals to Indonesia, as the credit crunch limits travel from major Western markets and results in a decline in arrivals from North America and only small growth from Europe. However, this should be offset by arrivals from within the Asia Pacific region, which we are expecting to grow by over 9% in 2013 and around 3% to 4% throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
A range of attractions continues to draw tourists to Indonesia, in particular the country's extensive beaches, such as on the island of Bali. However security concerns remain high, particularly with the threat of terrorist attacks, and this could deter tourists if the country's political stability declines.
- Major hotels continue to expand their presence in the country, with major groups Accor and Starwood planning to open several new hotels. Domestic brands also continue to expand.
- We are forecasting strong growth in the amount of accommodation available, with the number of hotel rooms increasing from 176,000 in 2013 to 271,000 in 2017.
- Outbound travel is expected to increase by around 9% per year throughout the forecast period, with smaller but still strong growth expected in inbound arrivals. By 2017 we expect arrivals to reach over 9.7mn and departures to reach 12.9mn.
- This quarter BMI has given Indonesia an overall Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Rating of 38, the lowest score in the Asia Pacific region, reflecting concerns relating to infrastructure under development and potential security threats.
- Key events in 2013 include the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the Annual Sea Worms Festival in Lombok, and a variety of religious and cultural festivals.