BMI View
With Poland's main export partners comprising Germany, France and Italy, its trade, and by extension its freight transport sector, will be exposed to the projected recession in the eurozone. BMI forecasts that Poland's economic growth will slow to an increase of just 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012. The country's domestic demand does offer something of a buffer, with imports, while slowing, still projected to post an increase of 7% in real terms.
Freight transport modes in Poland are therefore projected to witness a slowing in volume growth, but in our opinion will for the most part avoid the decline witnessed in 2009. We note that freight modes geared specifically toward the export sector, such as dry bulk throughput at the country's ports, which freight large quantities of cargo such as coal to the eurozone, will be affected. BMI projects a 5.2% decline in volumes at the country's main port of Gdansk in 2012.
Despite the projected slowdown in growth, Poland will continue its expansion plans to develop into a major logistics player in Europe. Investment at the Port of Gdansk has ensured that the country now features as a direct port of call for container lines, thereby decreasing the costs of transport for its importers and exporters and raising the competiveness of its trade sector. Further investment at Gdansk is in the pipeline, and its sister port of Gdynia is determined not to be left behind, with expansion projects also planned.
Poland is not only seeking to develop into a maritime gateway for Central and Eastern Europe: its freight companies are planning to expand their role from the domestic arena to the regional, with PKP Cargo expanding into Germany and Belgium with the stated aim of becoming Europe's second largest rail freight operator after Deutsche Bahn.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.9%;
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.4%;
- 2012 Port of Gdansk throughput is forecast to fall by 5.2%;
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 2.7%;
- 2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to fall by 0.27%;
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 5.5%.
Key Industry Trends
Getting Competitive
PKP Cargo has declared its aim of becoming the second largest rail freight operator in Europe, after Deutsche Bahn (DB). With that aim in place, the company is expanding its coverage. Its operations now extend into Belgium and Germany's border with France. DB's rail freight unit DB Schenker is, however, not letting PKP Cargo's move into its sphere of influence go unanswered, with the German rail freight operator now expanding its operations in Poland, linking the country by rail to the UK.
Increasing Direct Port Of Call Role
In the space of two years, Poland has graduated from a country reliant on transhipment from ports in the Northern Europe to a country boasting its own deepwater facility that is directly connected to Asia and can handle the largest box ships currently afloat. This transformation has mainly been driven by the patronage of Maersk Line, but other operators are noting Poland's potential, both as a demand market in its own right and as a maritime gateway to other Central and Eastern European markets. Panalpina is the latest example, with the logistics firm launching a less-than-container-load (LCL) service from Asia- Europe.
Risks To Outlook
Risks to the downside stem from a deepening in the eurozone crisis. Currently, a projected recession in the eurozone will lead to a slowing in the growth of Poland's freight volumes in 2012, although the country's growing consumer demand will offer some shelter from the worst of the eurozone's negative impact on its export sector. However, a steeper decline in the eurozone would have a negative impact on freight levels in Poland, as well as endangering the projected medium term recovery in growth that we forecast in the country's freight transport sector.
Upside risks concern the medium term outlook for Poland's freight sector, with BMI highlighting the potential for stronger growth over this period on the back of the increased usage of the country's ports as direct ports of call. The planned development of Poland into a maritime gateway will not only benefit freight levels through the country's ports, but also road and rail freight volumes. Further, the Chinese port of Ningbo's interest in Poland's maritime sector will, if it develops, lead to increases in Asian imports and the opening up of the Chinese market to Polish exports.