China Mining Report Q4 2009

The People's Republic of China is a natural world leader in terms of both reserves and the production ofseveral metals and minerals. It joined the WTO in 2001, and has since become an economic force to bereckoned with, doubling its manufacturing output and in the process accumulating over US$1trn offoreign exchange reserves. Endowed with abundant mineral wealth, the country leads in the production ofcopper, coal and aluminium. Further, its 1,200 gold mines position it fourth in terms of gold productionworldwide - a metal of which it is also the world's third largest consumer.

China is also in the fortunate position of being cash rich at a time when many mining companies aroundthe world are struggling to locate financing. So, in recent months, Beijing has been very active in buyingup Australian mining assets. We examine this phenomenon in detail on p.8 of this report.

The national government is taking active steps to make the mining industry more competitive. Although itis a communist state, China introduced market reforms in the 1980s and today only about a third of theeconomy is directly state-controlled. The government is encouraging mergers and acquisitions (M&As) asa means of ensuring optimal use of mineral resources, and barriers to foreign investment are graduallybeing done away with.

The Chinese mining industry as a whole is suffering from the global financial crisis and the collapse incommodity prices. Yet the recovery of the domestic and international mining sector will be due, in part,to the success of China's CNY4trn fiscal stimulus package. This should include investment in railroads,airports and power generation in 2009-2011, which will help drive demand for steel and othercommodities. The government has also pledged to spend CNY900bn on affordable housing in the sameperiod. It is estimated that these measures will boost demand for steel by as much as 150mn tonnes a year,which will help stimulate demand for iron ore.

Meanwhile, predictions that Chinese steel companies will be able to force a 30-40% drop in iron oreprices in 2009 look optimistic. Falling prices are forcing many Chinese ore miners out of business, whilesmaller international miners are having to reduce production. Therefore, just when China thought it wasin a strong position to bargain with the major mining companies, it has found itself more reliant on themthan ever. At most, industry watchers expect a cut of 20% in iron ore prices, after negotiation.

Industry Forecast

In 2008, China became the world's largest supplier of gold, surpassing South Africa. China is alsoimplementing its 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010), which emphasises securing the economy's futuremetals and minerals resource needs. The focus is on further geological exploration of mineral reservesand increasing the supply of mineral products to fuel China's rapid economic expansion. One area whereChina is especially keen to increase its reserves is uranium. With the country looking to rapidly increaseits nuclear power generation, the government is seeking to secure a stable supply of raw materials.

Uranium exploration is concentrating on Inner Mongolia and north west China. BMI forecasts the miningindustry GDP in China to grow at 13.26% per annum in 2008-2013, reaching US$474bn by 2013.